A hundred days after its initial estimates for the global olive oil production for the 2024/25 season, the “Greek Scientific Society of Olive Encyclopaedists” (4E) has revisited the previous data and made the following adjustments. Although production figures for some olive-producing countries have been revised, the overall outlook for Spanish and world production remain largely unchanged. Specifically:
Estimated Olive Oil Production for the 2024/25 Season (in thousands of tons):
- Spain: 1,300 – 1,500
- Turkey: 300 – 320
- Greece: 230 – 290 (250)
- Tunisia: 260 – 280
- Italy: 180 – 200
- Portugal: 160 – 180
- Morocco: 110 – 140
- Syria: 90 – 100
- Others: 550 – 650
- Estimated world production: 3,000 – 3,200
These figures indicate that, after three turbulent years of drought and adverse weather conditions, global production is expected—barring any last-minute catastrophic events—to return to normal levels.
Prices
Consequently, the olive oil prices at origin (wholesale, tanker, ex-works) are anticipated to decline, especially as the tanks of oil mills, traders, and packaging industries start to refill after December 2024. Under these conditions, a price range between €5 – €5.5/kg for medium-quality extra virgin olive oil could be considered “reasonable.”
Consumption
However, the main determining factor is expected to be consumption. Over the past two marketing years, the surge in olive oil prices led a significant portion of consumption—between 30% and 40%—to shift towards competitive seed oils or to reduce usage in both HoReCa and family cooking. The major “challenge” for olive oil is to recover this lost consumption as quickly as possible. Otherwise, the imbalance caused by a surplus in supply could exert downward pressure on producer prices. Therefore, lowering retail prices and promoting consumption are crucial to maintaining the industry’s overall balance and safeguarding the interests of olive producers. Olive oil represents less than 1.5% of world oils and fats production and consumption. Thus, collaboration among all the olive producing countries, the stakeholders of value chain and scientists, is of vital importance.
Stocks
It is noted that the reduced end-of-season stocks for 2023/24 are expected to just barely serve as a “bridge” to the fresh olive oils of the new harvest, without causing significant market tensions, while also slowing the rate of price decline.
Risk of Olive Fly Infestation
4E highlights that September, with its expected beneficial rains, presents a significant risk of widespread olive fly infestations. Olive producers need to stay vigilant, working closely with agronomists and relevant agricultural authorities.
This detailed analysis by 4E offers a comprehensive outlook on the factors affecting world olive oil production, pricing, and market stability for the upcoming season.
(Photo of the Erechtheion, Acropolis, courtesy of Andreas Smaragdis)
