Upsetting the olive oil balance

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These last few months, the olive oil market is standing still, with almost steady prices and limited transactions

So, we are talking about a balance that if we scratch the surface could be described as quotunstablequot, since it can#39t be easily maintained, at least in the medium-term, even in the short-term

The big question is in case this balance is upset, will the prices rise or decline? On this matter, views are divided

There is an opinion that the current prices will not last and they will drop First, because prices are already quottooquot high, compared to last year, and second, because the cold and rainy weather of past winter, will prepare a good harvest and overproduction for the following period 2017/2018 I am reffering to the Mediterranean as a whole

The second opinion says that, on the contrary, prices will rise Supporters of that view say that the current stock will not last until we reach full production in the coming winter at least until December 2017 So, even if we have overproduction in 2017/18, in the meantime the bottling industry will face serious shortages

Consumption seems to withstand current price levels even with a small decline in the case of Spain, but with the positive resilience of the international market a fact that is also facilitated by current dollar prices

This scenario is also supported by carefully reading the quotmadhousequot I apologise for the term current ex factory prices are In Italy, prices are over 6euro in Spain, good EVOO is over 4euro, while lampante 1deg reaches the price of common EVOO, while price in bulk is higher than the retail price

As we had also pointed out in recent article in Greek, only Greek olive oil producers are selling in lower prices, even lower than those in Tunisia In the meantime, retail prices for EVOO is about 8euro

So, if you ask for my personal intuition, I would say that sooner or later the year 2016/17 will end with a price raise After all, Greek producers deserve it – at least those who have saved some olive oil in their tanks, provided that they have cared about its good quality something we missed this year

PS I must clarify that this is my personal intuition The author of this article is not responsible for the bussiness decisions and transactions of the readers of this article