Saturday, June 15, 2024

2024: enters a new era of the Spanish bull market and Mediterranean uncertainties

Borrowing terminology from the stock market, ”sitting bears“ signal stagnant or declining prices, while ”dynamic bulls“ indicate an uptrend.

As cool observers of the current market situation can ascertain that the Spanish olive oil market has assimilated the previous levels of prices at origin during November and December 2023. With the momentum akin to that of an impetuous bull, it is gearing up to enter a new upward phase of uncertain duration and ending, depending on the endurance of future demand (domestic consumption plus exports) and, above all, the restoration of natural winter conditions, with rainfalls, cold, snow.

It is doubtful whether an ascent in the Spanish market does necessarily imply a similar behavior from Italian buyers, who tend to exercise more caution. At the end of the day, Italian packers can manage a market with less tensions during the campaign 2023/24.

Greece is facing an unprecedented dramatic market situation. After having last year an upwards record production of more than 350,000 tons olive oil, current campaign would barely exceed 130,000 tons, having in mind that the olive-trees are bare even of fruit for table olives use.

In December a truck of 30 tons ”super – premium quality“ olive oil reached a record price of 10.11 €/kg at an auction from the cooperative of Palaiopanagia, Laconia; but it was just a truck. What’s next? Nobody can predict whether there will be adequate offer in order to satisfy the official market demand and at which level of prices.

Meanwhile, countries such a Turkiye, Syria, Tunis, Morocco, have imposed various forms of export controls, in order to safeguard the supply of their populations with olive oil at reasonable prices.

After all, it is quite impossible to bring back memories of such an uncertain and dangerous situation threatening the future of olive tree, a deep – rooted element of Mediterranean civilization, economic, nutritional, environmental value. Unfortunately, we feel unarmed from the old policy mechanisms of the European Community which have been gradually abolished, reform by reform of the CAP. And now? What can we re-invent in order to unify the olive Mediterranean basin world before it is too late?

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